10. There’s trouble in the economy as a whole


10 <a href="https://homeloansplus.org/payday-loans-sc/"><img src="https://dygtyjqp7pi0m.cloudfront.net/i/51762/42972502_1.jpg?v=8D97C7C9185F4A0" alt=""></a>. There’s trouble in the economy as a whole

You should also consider real estate agents when you’re thinking about professionals who can warn you when the housing market is about to crash. Agents are poised to see issues on the ground as they emerge, so their feelings and confidence on the state of things can be telling.

As far as builders go, Page says to keep an eye on price reductions. “Builders [are] usually pretty on top of things going into the summer season. They typically raise prices going into the selling season. If you start seeing them taking reductions, then that’s a sign that they’re nervous about where things are going.”

9. Foreclosures are up

It’s not good when people can’t pay their mortgages and foreclose on their home, but when it happens at scale, it can mean a housing market crash is near.

A foreclosure happens when the owner of a home stops making mortgage payments, which causes the bank to take back possession of the property and put it up for sale at auction. To put things into perspective, during the 2008 housing market crash, there were more than 3.1 million foreclosure filings. This means that 1 in every 54 households in the U.S. received a foreclosure notice.

Begin by looking at foreclosure filings and foreclosure activity. This tells you whether foreclosures in the United States are up or down; the number of foreclosures is usually somewhere between 45,000 and 60,000 total foreclosures each month. It’s a good idea to then compare your state’s foreclosure number to the national number.

Local markets don’t always correspond with the national market. They may show a decreasing foreclosure rate, while the country is seeing an increasing foreclosure rate. You can compare this month’s foreclosure rate to that of last month and last year to get a better idea of where we are headed. An increase in foreclosure rates is often indicative that people are struggling financially and an area is more vulnerable

You may also want to check out ATTOM Data Solution’s Home Equity and Underwater Mortgage Report. This looks at the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of properties at the state, metropolitan statistical area (MSAs), county, and ZIP code levels.

There are numerous websites that can help you stay abreast of foreclosure trends and statistics, such as RealtyTrac, that you can continue to check

When the LTV is more than 100%, it means that the property owner owes more than the property is worth. If you see an LTV of 125%, this means that the homeowner owes 25% more than the house is worth. Homeowners who fall into this category are considered to be “seriously underwater.”

A property owner is equity-rich with an LTV of 50% or below; this means that the property is worth double (or more) than the amount the homeowner still owes on the loan.

“We find it’s neighborhood by neighborhood,” says Page. There can be huge variation even from block to block. You have to take your assessment down to a more micro level of the particular neighborhood in which you’re looking.

But while housing operates somewhat independently of the economy as a whole, it does not exist in a vacuum. If people lose their jobs due to a recession and can’t pay a mortgage, that’s going to have ripple effects across all corners of the economy. At some point, there is going to be a correlation with housing.

“The more jobs that are out there, the more free-flowing that cash is, then the better it’s going to be for the housing market as well as the rest of the economy,” says Page.


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